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Mark Sudduth over at Hurricanetrack mentioned the spot in the BOC yesterday in his weekly hurricane discussion video, and being that I am close to the Texas coast it sparked my attention. At the time the system was just coming off shore of Mexico, but since then, the convection has really exploded and stayed that way. It is hard to tell at this point whether the small circulation is still there or not, but the bands are certainly evident. It is currently sitting just between two areas of high shear (20-30 knots), so it is in a good spot for most things needed for development (low shear, high heat content). However, depending on the movement of the areas of shear that are currently surrounding it are, it could very easily turn out to be nothing. CIMSS Wind Shear As mentioned by the NHC: ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEAR STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N92W SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. |