As for tropical cyclone development, I think the GOM looks pretty much benign through at least the next 48 hours. Upper level winds are simply unfavorable for development at this time, despite the existence of at least two surface features, bountiful moisture, and very toasty SSTs. However, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing, off and on.

I wanted to chime back in on 92L for a moment - Systems like this... often never a good idea to write them off too fast. And judging by the first real buoy data on this feature, taken at a time when it had already been significantly diminished and disrupted by shear and dry air, it looks that 92L very well may have been blowing at or (probably) even above 35 knots for a good while when the surface circulation was almost definitely closed off during the overnight last night and early this morning.

Now tonight, it does appear that the trof which had been imparting so much shear above 10-15N is lifting out a little, and weakening some. Also, because 92L has traveled along with such a massive plume of deep moisture, the dry air which had started to get injected into the system throughout the day Tuesday, looks to be getting pushed back to the west, as 92L advances.

Most recently, very deep convection has blown back up over at least the northern semicircle, probably in no small part fanned by the increased southwesterly shear. This level of increased shear can sometimes actually enhance tropical cyclone formation (think of blowing on a smoldering pile of leaves and needles, so as to get a fire started), and I believe that, at least at the moment, we are witnessing this tonight.

Stay tuned...