| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 21 2010 09:43 PM |
Re: Another Week in June
|
Quote:
my bad... i should be more specific... i don't see a "tight circulation"... but more of a "broader center of circulation"... the afternoon sats due in my opinion show a surface area under the complex of storms as mentioned in the above posts.. near both our cords. The 18Z GFDL is picking up on system now... latest run is a little concerning... time to watch and see!
PS: Stewart bumped the 8pm TWO up to 50% chance in next 48hrs
Yeah, it definately bears watching. Interesting that the NHC got more bullish, while MikeC got bearish... curious.
New intensity model runs are much less bullish than the earlier ones, but until there is something there, the models really are useless. The DMIN has not been kind to 93L tonight, convections is very disorganized (what's left of the convection right now). Tomorrow will be interesting. I tend to agree with Mike that it won't be upgraded without recon confirmation of a LLC, if one ever exists.
The latest GFDL run appears to pull the system my way, or even east of me, into the Big Bend, or maybe even south of there.