hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jun 22 2010 10:24 AM
Re: 93L

Looking at the RGB satellite loop, there is definitely more activity in 93L's lower levels this morning. Yesterday was definitely all and upper level spin, while today, even though I wouldn't call it an LLC, it definitely has more spin going in the lower level clouds.

Most of the models seem to be moving towards the system entering the central to western gulf alot more than they were yesterday. ECMWF, HWRF, GFDL all of the system doing this. While I agree that the models won't really have a good grip on what the possibilities of this system are as long as it stays this unorganized, I take their shift westward in track as a sign they are starting to agree that the ridge that will be present over the northern GOM will not be leaving as soon as they believed, thus pushing the system further west.

Overall the system still is poised to be one that could make a rapid increase in intensity because of its location in the Caribbean and because of just about every other environmental variable around it.



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