I'm a bit surprised the NHC went all the way down to 20%. There definitely seems to be a better circulation (maybe not low-level) than there was yesterday, wind shear remains low, and virtually all of the models except the GFS develop the system. I could have maybe seen 30% or 40%, but 20% seems quite low. I guess all things considered, it's just a number, but it looks reasonably organized, not enough for a depression obviously, but I would probably say there is a 40% chance of development during the next 48 hours.