It appears that our system is farther north and east than the 18Z models have initialized it. This will have significant repercussions on the eventual track and intensity of the system since it will likely move closer to the islands. I'm beginning to lean a little more towards the models on the right (north and east) side of the model envelope. While they initialize a little too far south as well, the present motion of the system (northwest at about 15 mph) should take it right into the current forecast track of the HWRF and GFDL during the next 12 to 24 hours. Assuming development occurs, the Gulf Coast definitely needs to watch this.