danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 23 2010 09:47 PM
Re: 93L and X92L

Ok so my eyes weren't deceiving me. You guys see two vortices also.
Western vortice looks more active than earlier today. Early wispy cirrus clouds starting to encompass the COC. Weak looking compared to the Haitian system.
What has mme most confused is the cloud shapes over the lower Bahamas. The two arc shaped clouds should indicate the 'center' of the wave and the max amplitude above the equator. Amplitutde is better seen on WV imagery.
Western vortice is way ahead of the central wave and eastern vortice is lagging a bit behind.

Given the lack of development I find it slightly strange that these systems are basically tracking along the path of the initial model run. Just have to figure out which one is headed for the Yucatan and which one is headed for the GOM.
Since the Bermuda ridge and E TX high are in place I would think that the western system will go to MX. Then ridge breaks down. High moves east and opens the door for eastern vortice to gain latitude and recurve into the GOM.
This may belong in the Forecast Lounge as some of the my post is based on the models.

EDIT 5:47 EDT-Just noticed that the SSD satellite site has moved the 93L floater to the western vortice. This could get interesting very quickly. I don't think this virtice will TD overnight but current posistion shortens the trip and nulls out most of my above post.

Also of interest is a huge wave, although low in latitude, that just moved off the African Coast. Easily seen on TWC Tropical Update when they show the Western Hemishere (Big Blue Marble) IR image.



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