| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 24 2010 02:07 PM |
| Attachment |
|
Re: 93L and X92L
|
Quote:
The interesting thing about the area southeast of Jamaica, is that it may wind up taking over. It could even be considered a new possible invest area (It's not really even the same wave), but I'm not sure how that would be handled -- probably just continuing as 93
If this area kicks up then it changes things as far as the track discussed in the article.
Mostly it means the model runs this morning are all but worthless... again.
Also the recon flight for today has been canceled.
Attached a picture showing the area of spin that is present today. It is embedded in the largest areas of convection for now. There is some shear present, but according to CIMSS , it's only under about 10 knots, which is pretty low. There is higher shear to the north, but as the NHC keeps saying, it is forecast to improve.
I think this wave, or multiple waves, however you want to look at it, has been a nightmare for people looking at it, let alone the models. All of the models are still initializing much to far south and west for the are of spin that is present this morning.
Also, a drastic increase in vorticity is present where the new area of spin is located.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...zoom=&time=