What a mess....Still no definite focal point on the surface. The mid level spin that has been in the eastern third of the cloud mass continues and is now just SW of Jamaica. If a surface feature is going to emerge that will allow this to get into the Gulf it will have to develop near that spin today. There is a persistent anticyclone over the Yucatan that is impacting the system with Nw'ly shear.
Remember the odds are 40% for no development. The NHC doesn't do us any favors when it says 60% is a high probability. 40% is hardly a low probability.
The best terminiology is moderate, either way. That is where I am.