It's a MUCH more impressive "mess" this morning. NHC has, as of the 8am TWO, upped it to 70% probability, and basically it's a matter of timing now. Early morning visible imagery isn't available yet on SSD to confirm the LLC is co-located with the ball of convection, but the infrared loop makes a pretty good case for calling this thing a depression at any time now, in my opinion. There's still a ton of disorganized convection away from the apparent LLC, but there's also a nice ball of convection right near it now. Given the NHC's new guidance this year on lead time of issuing tropical storm warnings, they would have already been issued if the thing had been named already. If recon DOESN'T find a closed LLC and at least a depression (possibly a storm), I'll be incredibly surprised... unless it falls apart before recon gets there.