Well, of course we are all playing follow the "morphing" center......., but just to put my 2 cents in, i'd even make a guess for the center to be back a little bit, more around 17.0 and 81.0. Of course I am overstating the obvious with regards to the center being potentially broad and yet ill defined, however no doubt undergoing some significant consolodation of the overall envelope. Speaking of the overall envelope, it is quite sizeable and looks to be a potential major rain/flood maker. Seems to me that the center is somewhat elongated NNE/SSW, but either way I really do not think that the Yucatan Penninsula will greatly impede development. Land here, is basically flat, and over the years there have been tropical systems which even started developing there, despite the interaction of this landmass.

Though I think the overall system may now be borderline depression ( by loose definition of large rotation and consolodating convection, I would doubt that recon immediately closes off a clean center, nor find winds greater than 25kt's. However, given the much improved overall appearance this morning, and with regards to proximity to coastline (i.e. flood warnings, etc. ), I would guess that ANY greater organization, especially if a good sized CDO blows up over an appearant LLC, the Hurricane Center might be quick to pull the trigger on calling it a depression.

My guess is that we'll see this system as our seasons first depression by daybreak tomorrow. Remember, despite current motion, any deepening system will be more apt to follow a mid level steering, rather than simply going with the surface flow, as it has done thus far. I am guessing that the Euro continues to take this system farther south and west, perhaps because it does not see ( or anticipate ) any deepening quite as quickly as perhaps some of the other models might.