I see no distinct surface circulations within the broader circulation; however surface observations and streamlines do indicate there is a surface low of about 1005 or 1006 milibars right where NHC is looking. Shear aloft is between 15 and 20 knots from the north with very light winds to the NW; however there is moderate shear continuing west to east from Yucatan to Cuba and until that area moves or lightens there is no chance of this system surviving in that environment in the here and now. All data points towards the area of convection off the Honduran coast but the proximity to land might also be a factor; stay tune!