I've stared and stared at the satellite loops and I can't find a circulation other than the broader area which covers the entire area. I keep looking at the convective blob just to the east of Honduras and if someone put a gun to my head I'd say that's it though based on the broader pattern it is in the "donut hole" devoid of convection. I keep looking at the Shear analysis and it's almost there but not quite in regards to where it's next to calm to the NW and of course the broader center is perfect. It's damn if you and damn if you don't, but I agree with Ed, if it is that blob off Honduras; times about up before it moves over land. It's a mess down there and there's a lot of mess; who knows at this stage in development that depression could show up anywhere but where I simply think shear to its north has to weaken and rights on the line east; could go either way.