9:00PM EDT 26 June 2010 Update
Recon aircraft in Alex has indicated that it may have regained Tropical Storm strength, and likely will be re-upgraded at 11PM.

8:00AM EDT 26 June 2010 Update

Alex has structurally held together quite well overnight, even being over land, but the max windspeed has lowered to a minimal Tropical Storm. There are two schools of thought, one is the more westwardly scenario (Which was talked about last night), which was based on the storm being weaker and the Euro, GFDL model trending, and one more northerly, which is based on the structure of the storm being stronger (GFS, Canadian).

Either way it will likely slow the forward motion over the storm quite a bit once back over water, and probably get enough of a chance to become a solid hurricane before landfall in Mexico. Those in the forecast cone will want to watch as the official forecast is forecasting a Category 2 hurricane, with a great deal of uncertainty either way. The potential for a major hurricane is there.

That said, the most likely scenario is that Alex makes a second landfall in Mexico. But confidence in that is low, and things could change. Those in the forecast cone need to watch Alex closely.

Key will be if it makes the left turn sooner or later, we probably won't know until Wednesday.

Belize Radar Recording (Flhurricane)
Belize City Webcam Recording(Flhurricane)
San Pedro Belize Webcam Recording(Flhurricane)
Weather at Belize City
Weather at Campeche, Mexico
Weather at Veracruz, Mexico
Weather at Poza Rica, Mexico
Weather at Tampico, Mexico

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11:00PM EDT 26 June 2010 Update
Official forecast keeps Alex over the Bay of Campeche long enough to regain strength to hurricane force. We will watch trends into tomorrow.

9:30PM EDT 26 June 2010 Update
Alex appears to be inland now in Belize, and convection is running away from the center, judging by the way it's moving now it may never totally get in the Bay of Campeche at all and stay inland for an extended period of time. Whatever time it does get over the Bay, it seems it won't have much time to organize. This is good news as it likely will not develop as much as previously thought. In short it will likely stay a Tropical Storm, or less.

The wave northeast of the Caribbean (was 94L) is disorganize and likely will not develop.

4PM 26 June 2010 Update

Tropical Storm Alex is nearing landfall in Belize, and is strengthening as it does.

It is moving further west than the forecast track indicated, that means it may spend more time over the Yucatan before it gets in the Bay of Campeche. For Texas, it looks like you are not going to see any landfall, but Mexico, around Tampico, may.

7 AM 26 June 2010 Update

Tropical Depression one was upgraded to this year's first named storm, Alex. In response, Belize has put up Tropical Storm warnings. Alex has a little more time to strengthen (probably a good amount) before reaching the coast somewhere near the Belize/Mexico border.

Once over the Yucatan the system will likely weaken some, and may return to tropical depression status. It is likely to re-emerge Monday in the Gulf in the Bay of Campeche and generally head northwest. The most likely scenario after that is that it will bend back left and possibly landfall south of the Texas/Mexico border. However, there is some variation of that with the models, and those in south Texas will also want to watch the system closely. Those in the rest of the Gulf probably will not have to deal directly with Alex, but should monitor it in case things change.

Belize Radar Recording (Flhurricane)
Belize City Webcam Recording(Flhurricane)
San Pedro Belize Webcam Recording(Flhurricane)
Weather at Belize City
Weather at Veracruz, Mexico
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Original Update
After careful recon, it appears 93L has formed well enough to become Tropical Depression #1. It is on the verge of becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and probably will before sometime tomorrow. Tomorrow night into Sunday early it will likely make landfall in the Yucatan

Then it is forecast to enter the Bay of Campeche Sunday night, and possibly reform into a Tropical Storm in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm warnings are up in the Yucatan from Chetumal north to Cancun. They will likely see Tropical Storm Force winds and a lot of rain as it makes its way over the peninsula.

Those in the Western Gulf, from Louisiana, Texas and into Mexico will want to watch this system closely. Most likely scenario right now is that it stays further westward, but sits in the western central Gulf for a while--which complicates things. Landfall is a crapshoot, but south of the Texas/Mexico border as a Tropical Storm is the best guess. However, there is low confidence in that. This has more than enough time to change. Stronger windshear in the Gulf of Mexico and brisk upper level westerly winds could make for an interesting long range track (and weekend).

Where do you think it will go? If you want to discuss a guess or long range models, go to the lounge!

Those in the Gulf, especially Louisiana and Westward, need to watch this system over the next week.

94L northeast of the Caribbean has a 20% chance (and rising) to develop over the next 48 hours, but it is likely no threat to land at all.

More to come soon

Cancun Radar

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