Bloodstar: It would not be the first time a storm's intensity was upped that quickly. There was a hurricane in 2005 that was upgraded from a Cat 3 to a borderline Cat 4/5 in the matter of 30 minutes I think. The "Discussions" were funny - "what a difference an hour makes" one of them started off...

Track appears to take Alex into the west Gulf, toward Texas. This assumes that the trough DOESN'T shove it move toward the north/central Gulf, like some models are showing. It's too early to say for sure what it's going to do, of course, especially until after the next two model runs, and some consistency with them. Official forecast is a blend of the two divergent model groups. I hope the western model runs are more accurate, because even a weak Alex would be a nightmare with all the oil out there.