Looks like I overdid the westward trend a bit last night, it's still looking Mexico, but I know the Hurricane Center is watching the model trends, too. Alex is pretty complex, weak system right now, with a great outflow and structure still. IT could rapidly restrengthen over the Gulf, and how much it does really determines how far north it may go. It's still mostly a Mexican problem, though. The westward trend is mostly Euro driven, sometime Tuesday Alex is likely to move more westward.

The system is still moving west of the forecast track.