Well you know Sir... until it's back over water and has a well defined center and we get a good indication of how it's doing and which way it is going, the models can be nothing more than overcooked spaghetti...

long range ensemble models have it moving over Ok City and up towards the Great Lakes...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201001_ensmodel.html#a_topad

Interesting considering the path is NOT through Mexico...

so.... I suggest we wait a few hours and get data from the planes (which I believe found low pressure and stronger winds) and then see how the next model runs go

...wouldn't you agree Berry?