Uh, since the COC has been back over water for at least an hour, I'd say it's a pretty good bet that it will still be over water when the plane gets there

Edit: Looking at the approaching trough... I'm beginning to think one of two scenarios will unfold...
1) Alex misses the trough, and heads basically due west into Mexico - not like, in my opinon
2) The trough picks Alex up and moves it almost due north, toward the central Gulf Coast. In this scenario, the westward movement would, in my view, end rather abruptly... putting Alex onshore no further west than Galveston, and I think closer to the TX/LA border. The trough axis seems almost verticle to me.