MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 28 2010 08:16 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
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Quote:
What is the probability of this storm getting further north, and when would we know if this could happen. I live in Houston, tx.
Roughly 7%, it gets much higher the further south you go, highest is in Mexico around San Fernando at about 43%. In short very doubtful you will have much to deal with in Alex as far as Landfall goes.
Current model trends are shifting toward the north, but have also continued to fall to the right of where the storm actually has gone.
If you were to base it solely on the models right now, Brownsville would be the middle of it, with plenty on either side. Trends on the storm overall would suggest further south, and of course the official hurricane forecast is still toward the south.