NHC seems to be sticking to their models that Alex will stay to the left side of the cone.

I did see the following in the latest Discussion:

THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.

I would probably start to look at the possibility of Hurricane Conditions along the whole Texas Coastline this week... by Friday. Based on the last 24 hours of models shifting slighty to the north every 6 hours. And Alex being forecast to make 90 knots or 100 mph. Wind field is probably going to be large due to the size of the storm and pressure gradients. Alex has a large satellite signature at this time and I don't see a lot of reason for the size to shrink.

Check the Windspeed probablilities at NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or at
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/PWSAT1

Note... they change every 6 hours. Houston's present cumulative 13% probability of Tropical Storm force winds, thru Midnight Friday night, could go up or down 6 hours from now.