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actually the longer it sits in the BOC the further south Alex will go. Ridging start digging down late Tuesday into Weds that will turn Alex west. 23N 24N or 25N before the turn? Probably be about 200 miles south of the Tx border.
NE GOM looks interesting for the end of this week. That midlevel energy has to go somewhere. Thats a wait and see evolution..
agreed on the timing of it digging in, but looking at the GFS, for example, it seems like the ridging gets weaker about the time that Alex makes landfall. If Alex takes 12-24 hours longer to get to land, then it would seem it would have a chance to go further north before making landfall.
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche