Been observing more on the steering layers for the storm. It seems like the stronger Alex gets, the more north he can pull. Just for an example, look at this map Steering Layers for 940 mlb. or lower . If Alex was a category 4 or 5 with pressure of 940 mlb. it would steer to just about south of Galveston. The map shows a much weaker ridge. However, the weaker Alex is, the more west it goes Steering Layers for 990-970 mlb. . NHC has Alex becoming a category 1 storm at landfall, which is reasonable because of the dry air that has been inhibiting it. However, I'm looking at a category 2 Hurricane at landfall, same thing happened with Dolly in 2008. Landfall either at or south of the Mexican border, which was my first forecast but after the models went north, and as the trough looked stronger, I veered it north, but I'm starting to see a WNW movement with Alex, of course recon will have the best information. My best guess is that Alex is a Category 1 storm with 75-80 mph by 11 p.m. since recon won't be at the center till after the 8 p.m. advisory which has no change in strength. If this doesn't belong here please let me know, it's been a long time since I used this site, grown more in my knowledge of weather over the years.