It can not be emphasized enough that Alex is both an unusually large and especially wet tropical cyclone, particularly for the ATL this early in a season. Given the holiday week, many vacationers to Mexico or Texas - and perhaps also even Louisiana and other states should Alex continue to push numerous outer rainbands ("rainbands," to put it mildly!) - may not be accustomed to this type of an event.

Alex may yet inch up the coast prior to landfall, coming ashore and moving inland closer to more densely populated regions of Mexico and/or Texas. Also, there is some reasonable thinking now that Alex could move inland, only to then do any number of possible loops, to then hook back across the southern gulf states. For now, these scenarios, while considered possible, are outliers.

But even if Alex were to merely come ashore within 200 miles or so to the south of the Tx/Mx border, the circulation envelope and associated mass of rainbands - some clearly capable of dropping many inches or rain per hour for hours on end - make the potential for flooding very high this week.

As the saying goes, "Turn Around Don't Drown"