The models in general did poorly on Alex until late on the 25th, when a few started finally pointing the general direction where it went, even though plenty were split at the time. For a while the models were so consistently wrong to the north, I was really starting to think it may not ever get in the Bay of Campeche, but enough of a weakness in the ridge made it go northward a bit, enough to get quite a few people concerned it may head even further north.

Water vapor imagery kinda hampered that, and suggested a more westerly turn, which eventually did happen. The Hurricane center nailed the hurricane warning area pretty good, considering how large the storm was. It'll stay fairly strong until the center of the system runs against the mountains in Mexico, at which point it'll probably dissipate quickly.

The ongoing rainfall problem will probably be the largest story from Alex.

After Alex It'll probably be quiet for a bit (not long enough however), the most likely areas for July development are the West Caribbean, and Gulf, as well as west Atlantic start creeping in, toward later July you can start to consider African waves a bit more. The place to watch into next week is the Gulf, however.