stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 01 2010 09:36 AM
Re: Alex... Last page.

Alex was a very interesting system to track beginning in the Eastrn Carribean until it reached the Mexican coastline.

I think it proved how much climatology affects systems in ways many of us including myself do not understand. Would the same system in August in the Eastern Carribean produced a Cat IV or V storm down the road? I'd have to guess yes.

947mb at landfall is a very low pressure for June, but the enormous size and the flooding rains may offset the lack of windspeed and in fact prove more deadly since the area of Mexico where the eye passed isn't very densely populated.

Katrina hit as a Cat III storm I believe yet the surge was of epic proportions. Alex hit with a falling barometer at 947mb; yet was "only" a Cat II storm.

these two hurricanes prove that despite our attempts to label these monsters, each storm is almost like an individual with varying characteristics. Presure doesn't always equal wind speed, and wind speed at landfall doesn't always equal storm surge, and people need to recognize that when the NHC posts a warning there is imminent danger.

I know people in Biloxi who felt they were safe pre Katrina just because they survived Camille a much stronger landfalling hurricane that hit land closer to their home; yet in the end Katrina proved far more powerful. They said in a sense Camille killed even though it was years later.

Looking ahead, does an A Cat two hurricane in June make a severe hurricane season more likely? I bet Mr Ed could tell us that fairly quickly. The ingredients are there; warm waters, weakening trade winds, etc.; but as Alex just proved hurricanes are hard to predict and hard to label. We will have to wait and see what develops.



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