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Looking at water vapor loops, it appears the area where 95L is being plotted is immediately to the East of the big upper level high that allowed Alex to "breathe", and just south of a mid summer cold front that has a ton of dry air behind it. Upper level winds are not conducive to development. There's another big ULL East of the Bahamas and another in the west central Carribean. In the near term I can't see any tropical development in the traditional July breeding grounds. Way too much shear. |