The first question everybody is likely to be asking is whether this surface low pressure center that is developing on or near the stationary front in the GOM is tropical; the answer is NO. This doesn't imply that at some future date it may become tropical; however it is unlikely and here are the reasons why:

1. UW-CIMMS analysis this morning has winds from the N and NNW at 20 knots and higher to the west.

2. Eastern USA longwave trough continues to dig (as depicted via water vapor satellite imagery) into the NE GOM and analysis of the 500 millibar upper air analysis reveals the trough extending across FL to a cutoff upper low at 29N 84W.

3. Over the past several days weight has been given more towards the ECMWF and it's run to run performance than the GFS which while consistent has been overly aggressive with this feature.

4. There's no doubt there's a low; however it is in my opinion it is baroclinic and not tropical at this time. Given the upper air environment and the amount of time it would take for this system to transform from baroclinic to tropical; highly unlikely.

5. I see nothing to suggest a hybrid storm at this time however there is one fly in the ointment; next week models invert an upper trough along the SE coast.

6. One interesting feature is along the ITCZ. There is a tropical wave along 10N and 45W moving west and short of another disturbance south of Cuba; they are the only notable features today that have light shear above them; however for anything to develop there; shear must remain light directly over these systems; the surrounding environment is hostile.

Last but not least; Happy July 4th weekend to one and all and a reminder to keep residents of the Gulf coast in your hopes and prayers as the oil spill continues. I doubt there is a better sandwich than a Shrimp Po Boy and a cold, cold beer...okay two, fresh raw oysters, Ritz Crackers, hot sauce and cold, cold beer!