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I don't think 95L will have much of a chance in the NE Gulf because it has taken in too much dry air. The strong shear in place over it continues to tear any convection apart pretty quickly. The only chance I think it may have is if it can work its way more toward the southwest than west. The area that looks better today than yesterday is south of Jamaica since there has been a nice blow up of convection there. It is in a pretty favorable area for development with warm waters and low shear. Any thoughts on the Western Caribbean wave today, anyone? P.S. Here's a link to some REALLY good satellite imagery that is updated more frequently than others: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html |