MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

VALID JUL 04/1200 UTC THRU JUL 08/0000 UTC

...SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF

THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER BUT REMAINS SLOWER AND
GENERALLY DEEPER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET SOLNS. THE 12Z GFS
APPEARS TO BE A FAST NRLY OUTLIER...ESP WITH ITS ENERGY ALOFT. THE
06Z GFS WAS MORE REASONABLE AND IN BETTER LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/UKMET CAMP. THE 12Z GEM GLOB APPEARS TO BE DEEP OUTLIER
ALOFT...AND PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON A NEW GULF LOW ON DAY 2/3 THAT
TRACKS TWD THE GULF COAST WHICH IS NOT AT ALL SUPPORTED BY THE
OTHER GLOBAL MDLS. THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUES TO HAVE OVERALL THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYS WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND ALSO CONTINUING
TO REFLECT A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN THAT ULTIMATELY TAKES THE
CURRENT LOW INTO SWRN LA TWD THE END OF DAY 1. HOWEVER...THE UKMET
SFC PRESSURES MAY BE A TAD TOO LOW BY THE END OF THE PD...AND TO
THAT EXTENT A BLEND WITH THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTED WHICH IS A BIT
WEAKER.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WNH/PMDHMD