berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Jul 05 2010 04:11 PM
Re: Stirring in the Tropics, but no Development

There is a diffuse stationary front that lies from St. Augustine WSW to the west coast of FL and an argument could be made there's nothing left of it. In the upper air is where things are complicated. There is an upper low and/or inverted upper trough draping the entire northern Gulf coast extending W and SW to another upper low off the Southern TX coast. Hot upper ridge over the NE USA and a deeper upper low off DELMARVA. Forcast has another upper long wave trough for the Eastern US broader and reaching the Deep South in 4 to 5 days.

Models have whatever may develop with a date with S TX but wind shear analysis has the western and central GOM and the W Caribbean open for business, despite an upper low off the S TX coast.

If a depression develops, the upcoming upper pattern will be very, very complicated.



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