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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010 BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A BROAD AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 52W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 20 KT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF E CUBA ALONG 75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 75W-82W. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/171722.shtml? |