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The shear has all but vanished over this system. It does look as though it will pull together tonight and tomorrow, but it's proximity to Hispaniola should tend to keep it rather weak in the short term. I'm not seeing a LLC just yet in the vis loop nor on San Juan radar - maybe a slight hint of one forming, but nothing definite just yet. The GFDl now takes it more northward, the GFS is esentially unchanged, and the HWRF splits them on the 12Z runs. Until there is a LLC for several runs, the models don't mean a whole lot. Expect lots of changes in them in the near term. |