Have to agree on the limited benefit that the models provide at this time; at least until a better organized core forms.

No doubt that the upper low to the systems north, is having havoc with the system. Interesting to note however, that satellite presentation of this cold low would seem to indicate that it is warming some. Still, for the time being and in tandum with the inflow to its south being temporarily cut off by Hispanola, conditions for rapid development are just not there. This all said, the system should progress WNW over warmer water and with regeneration of convection over what might at least be a more evident COC north of Hispanola, that a reasonable chance still exists for development into a TS prior to reaching Florida. Good news is that the threat of a worse impact has gone way way down.

Small core systems certainly have the potential to deepen quicker than larger systems especially given high octane fuel ( SST's ). Until we have a developed tropical depression though, that risk becomes that much smaller. Still, plenty of time for things to change for those in the gulf.