MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
106 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID JUL 21/1200 UTC THRU JUL 25/0000 UTC
excerpt~danielw

...TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...

THE NAM...UKMET...AND 00Z ECMWF ALL HANDLE THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY.
THE GFS IS SLOWER...EXTENDING THE INVERTED TROUGH FARTHER NORTH.
THE MIDDAY MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION WITH TPC RESULTED IN A
FORECAST OF A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO DAY 3.

?? Northwest corner on Day 3. Should that be NE Corner??~danielw

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
837 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 25 2010 - 12Z WED JUL 28 2010
excerpt

THE PRESSURES STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS
PARALLEL...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 06Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE AFTER MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAINTAINS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE TO
ENHANCE DEFINITION... AND TO YIELD A COMPROMISE FCST BETWEEN
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUITY VERSUS THE MAJORITY OF LATEST
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ALOFT ALONG
WITH VERIFICATION OF RECENT FEATURES FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST FAVORED BY POINTS MENTIONED ON THE 16Z
NHC/MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL YESTERDAY...HENCE THE SOUTHWEST
ADJUSTMENT. A PERSISTENT LACK OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG OF A FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.