MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 21 2010 10:10 PM |
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning
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Quote:
It appears that the ULL is moving out to the WNW a little quicker than 97L is moving WNW. That should permit a anti-cyclonic upper flow to begin to enhance ventilation and potential development. Tomorrow is the key. If there is no closed low tomorrow then the chances of a classified system developing before it closes on South Florida are greatly diminished. That does not mean that storm type conditions would not effect the lower half of the peninsula Friday-
Saturday, however.
There is still no low level circulation is correct, if one were to form tomorrow it would probably be right near or just south of the Caicos islands in the Caicos Bank. But the make or break will be tomorrow. This area has spawned a few notable storms in the past (including the formation of TD#10 in 2005), but not really in July.
It has on more night of shear (tonight) to survive before conditions improve tomorrow. The upper level low is moving out toward the west now, away from the system.. If it makes it through relatively intact tonight then it has a real shot for development tomorrow. Track wise it's still seems south Florida/straits is the odds favorite, again deepening if it develops tomorrow or not. If it doesn't develop tomorrow, chances drop off greatly it will this side of Florida.