Good afternoon! The strong tropical wave as expected has become more disorganized as upper winds are not favorable for development. Surprisingly with the lone exception of San Juan there was no mention of the TUTT low...upper level cutoff low and shortwave just to the north and immediate west of the tropical wave. It is this ULL that has resulted in the wave becoming weak. There is considerable subsidence on the back side of the shortwave extending from this ULL.

The 12Z model package all all unanimous in this wave not closing off and it continuing west and west-northwest across FL in 24 to 36 hours and into the GOM tracking west to the TX/KA coast in 72 to 96 hours as the upper ridge over the SE USA stengthens and extends into the Atlantic with east to west flow across the Gulf states and FL.

A purely tropical depression/storm is out of the question for the near term, though one cannot rule out a hybrid.

There continues to remain the possibility that beyond this forecast window and the wave enters the GOM that the upper air will be more conducive for development.

An area I've been looking at is the huge plume of tropical moisture on water vapor satellite over the western GOM extending south to the Yucatan. That said, I haven't looked at that region in depth or pressures at the surface to comment in depth.