weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 22 2010 01:32 PM
Re: Two Waves Being Watched

That's a nice link for satellite but the loop is so short, it really is hard to establish mean motion. One could make the argument that the COC is moving more or less westward. Looking at NASA's site ( http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ ) , and then clicking on the 1KM and choosing a longer animation, my guess is a general motion of 280/290.

Taking a longer look at 97L, the COC is really borderline exposed on the western edge of the convection. I think its nearly impossible to ignore the obvious circulation and higher winds are no doubt occuring in the N.E. quadrant of the system. The fact that there has been limited history with this circulation, its small and tenuous convection, and close proximity to the Upper Low would lead me to think it might be premature to think we have a T.S. already. If no real improvement to the convection were to occur but recon does confirm sustained borderline winds to the north or northeast of the center ( even if well removed ), than NHC might upgrade then - if no other reason but to play it safe.

Am guessing a Special Advisory even before 11:00am officially upgrading to a Tropical Depression, and then perhaps an upgrade if called for, by ( or before ) 2:00pm.



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