I think the 18z model run will shift to the east some, but not to the extent as some may expect. Looking at the steering layers, it appears it should start turning more westerly by this evening. I still think a landfall around the Texas/Louisiana border or somewhere in the state of Louisiana appears the most likely scenario. Also, Tropical Depression 3 is in its organization mode, so it will have wobbles to the north (or south) occasionally. I have a feeling the NHC will shift the track toward the Central Louisiana coastline at the 4:00p.m. update; but, we'll see what the models show.