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Looking at some of the data it seems that the shear has dropped to 10kts over TD3 as the ULL to the west is moving out faster than expected. The only ingredient missing is a good blowup of convection near the center. If we see that happen, we might be dealing with a stronger system than first thought. There is a fine line between shear and ventilation

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Exactly my thinking.. the CIMMS shear map shows wind shear about 10-15 knots over the center, 5-10 knots over the systems convection. I find no reason for this not to ramp up into a stronger storm, perhaps a Hurricane as the ULL continues to speed westward, away from TD3. Of course, time will tell, I did expect an upgrade about now, so I'm eating my crow for the afternoon