Well... Bonnie is now just north of due east of the first forecast point from the 5pm advisory, and by a fair amount. It MIGHT have shifted a bit to the left in the last few frames, but it was actually moving almost due north right before that so that the net effect is still NNW. Unless it turns due west - and rapidly - or turns WSW - it's going to make landfall along the mainland. This may actually be a good thing, because it will weaken the system while its over land. However, I do remember the last storm to form where Bonnie is, and what happened to it after it cross the state. Thankfully, upperlevel winds aren't conducive to rapid intensification in the Gulf.

Edit to comment on latest models... I'm getting a very bad sense of deja vu.