| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 23 2010 02:06 AM |
|
Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie
|
Quote:
Bonnie as of 12:15 am ET...is north of progged forecast track points by about 1 degree latitude.
What strikes me is that Bonnie currently seems to be more than a degree due East if not slightly ENE of the projected 8 AM position (according to the 11 PM update).
Quote:
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.4N 78.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
Now granted, for the "center" I 'm using just to the SW of the apparent blow-up in convection seen in the water vapor and AVN loops (yes, I know the pitfalls of this). And of course, to prove how misleading these sat images can be, the latest recon has the center even lower than I was estimating (thx Storm Hunter).
Still, Bonnie is going to need to start moving due west soon, or the NHC may need to adjust the forecast even more to the north (east).