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Since only one in every ten tropical waves will develop into a tropical cyclone (on average), here we tend to wait until a wave shows some signs of falling into that 10% category before getting into a discussion about it. The only model that I could find that develops a wave in the next week was the CMC - and the Canadian Model is not the best model to use for this type of activity since its not really a tropical model (for that matter, neither is the GFS). Perhaps because the model was designed for better accuracy in temperate climates, it will often generate a spurious storm that never materializes. As I've mentioned before (probably far too many times), the model outputs are not the forecast, they are just occasionally useful guidance for developing a forecast. Cheers, ED |