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The CMC, GEM, NOGAPS, and the reliable EURO model now develop the wave off of Africa. It's reasonable and I expect more models to jump on because conditions are becoming favorable where the SAL is now lifting north, in fact, SAL should not be an issue with this wave. Things are moistening up and shear is on the decline. The NHC may mention it tonight if the EURO makes another aggressive run on the system. It takes it to the Caribbean which sounds reasonable to me do to the westward motion of the storms so far this year. Though I notice the EURO doesn't have a big high in the southeast at the time it has what appears to be Hurricane Colin nearing PR. This is all by observation. The NOGAPS keeps the storm weak as the CMC, like the EURO aggressively develops it, though it takes it out to sea. It's definitely something to watch now that the EURO has jumped on board. We might be seeing our first Cape Verde development this weekend. |