typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 30 2010 01:46 AM
Re: Watching Two Areas


The 18z run of the tropical models are developing 90L more significantly now.

NCEP noted earlier in the day that there are 10 analogs for next week's expected synoptic scale pattern across the Atlantic Basin, and of those 10, 6 had a developed or developing tropical cyclone, 4 of which were in the western quadrant of the subtropical/tropical Atlantic Basin. This is in the general region where the models are moving 90L.

Currently convection is not as robust as the last 24 hours, however, there is interestingly a slightly more discerned cyclonic banding in appearance.

There is still just a 20% chanced assigned to this entity - for what ever method those chances are derived. What I personally like about this feature is that it emerged off the west coast of Africa (N of Sierra Leone) in an at least temporary abatement of the Saharan Air Layer contamination in the region, which had been fairly pervasive prior.

In terms of the outlook the only issue standing in the way of 90L may actually be easterly shear. A strengthening Azores high arming strongly across the breadth of the Basin argue for deepening easterly trades. Otherwise, the oceanic heat content is high, and if the trades are manageable, storm relative shear would be low.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center