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I believe they changed it to a Orange at 2 PM this afternoon. This one might deserve a bit more than a once daily look. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. |