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Looking at visible satellite imagery this afternoon there is clearly a tight cyclonic swirl at the surface with convective activity displaced to the east. Wind Shear analysis has a small high just to the SW of the system but just to the NW an area of 40 knot winds aloft. I've seen worse presentations on satellite and systems have a depression or storm classification. By definition what were looking at is at least a depression but the winds aloft for the time being are going to make it next to impossible for "Colin" to maintain any level of vertical cohesiveness. There is an opportunity ahead for "Colin" to regain tropical storm status if the small anticyclone to its SW can travel along the top or travel in the narrow area of light winds aloft in about 24 more hours. This system is no threat to the US and especially if it does regain storm status and thus be steered by the mid and upper level winds which a long wave trough/TUTT will block an advance towards the US. |