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As of 8:32pm EDT NHC Advisories are now showing on the left sidebar. Advisory #8 was issued at 7:30pm EDT. I'll post the essential information here for those folowing the storm. TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAS STRENGTHENED... AROUND 5 PM AST...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WHICH IS SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE AN UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY BY 8 PM AST. THIS WILL SUPERCEDE THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT. NOTE: DUE TO NWS COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...NHC WEB PAGE AND RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION ARE UNABLE TO UPDATE. SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 66.2W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN ********************************************* TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010 ...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS. SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN REPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005 MB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS INITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING WERE MADE. INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS. ****************************************************** Asterisks denote separate product excerpts~danielw I'm not sure if this has anything to do with the earlier data outage... but it could delay the model runs tonight. Just a possibility. Only anomaly message that I could find in the system. NOUS42 KWNO 052048 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO 2048 UTC THU AUG 05 2010 ( 4:48pm EDT transmission time) BACKUP OF SDM/NCO/NCEP OPERATIONS IS IN EFFECT BY THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MO. NCEP TOOK A POWER HIT THAT CUT OFF CONNECTIVITY WITH THEM. PHONES AND ELECTRIC ARE DOWN. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RECOVERY AT THIS TIME. |