danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 09 2010 02:18 PM
Recon Plans

Noon EDT departure for the INVEST flight on Tuesday. (corrected day of week for flight.)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

*****************************************************
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 AM EDT MON AUG 09 2010
(excerpts~danielw)
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 95W IN BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

LOW PRES EXPECTED TO SPIN OFF FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
MODELS CONSENSUS SHOW MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN GULF MON AND MOVING W TOWARD LOUISIANA THU. GFS WEAKER
AND FARTHER E. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD COMPROMISE BETWEEN ECMWF
AND GFS TRACK WHICH BRING LOW PRES NEAR 29N82W AND MOVES IT INTO
FAR NE GULF BEFORE CARRYING IT INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N85W EARLY WED.



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