Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Aug 11 2010 10:20 AM
Nothing Happening Yet

Back to more of an on-topic conversation, my best guess at a center is 27.3N 86.1W at 11/1340Z - and thats a real shot in the dark, literally, because there is no convection to speak of at that location. Convection is all displaced primarily to the northeast and southeast. Right now the structure has declined quite a bit and it would be a stretch to even consider TD5 as subtropical, but it is what it is (whatever that is). TD5 looks like it has never managed to overcome the influence of the ULL (currently south of eastern Louisiana) - which is odd because shear is quite light. Eastern Gulf systems can often be very difficult to track.

Invest 93L is still poorly organized. For two days the system has had a 60 to 70 percent likelyhood of development into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours and for two days the invest area has remained unchanged under southerly shear. But we'll wait for another two days and see if anything changes.
ED



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