Allen there will probably be around that 15-18 storms as you said. Still, we cant take models into consideration after 4-5 days out. Peeps looking at model runs 120+ needs to understand that they will change from run to run and also
you have to look to see what other models are seeing (if) the same thing. Usually the GFS compared to the ECMWF.
GFDL is usually pretty good also up to 72hrs. Hitting the US in 200hrs + right now is a farmers almanac...they been changing each run.